Layer: Public Health CDC Combined Death Rate (ID: 136)

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Description: <DIV STYLE="text-align:Left;"><DIV><DIV>Data Source Comparison ThoughtsPopulationNumbers Reported<UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI>U.S. Census Bureau (2020): 5,118,425This estimate is pulled from the US Census Bureau Population Reporting 2020, which is in the file 2020_SCPop (Z:\Workspace\Projects\SCEMD _HIRA 2023\2023Plan\Data\ByHazard\PublicHealth\Data\COVID), a summary file from DECENNIALPL2020.P1-2021-11-23T184402 (Z:\Workspace\Projects\SCEMD _HIRA 2023\2023Plan\GISReference\Population)</LI><LI>SC DHEC: 5,218,040This estimate is based on the SC DHEC reported population estimates in each of the county-specific dashboard table pages and in the statewide dashboard table. The county estimates and the statewide estimate had the same number. The SC DHEC population estimates are ‘2020 population estimates’ from the Census’ experimental 1-year American Community Survey (ACS). </LI></UL>Difference99,615 with a net positive for SC DHEC estimates. The difference equation is SC DHEC estimates (1-year ACS) – Census (Decennial) Population = Difference. Any difference that is positive has a higher estimate in SC DHEC, and any that is negative has a higher estimate in the census population. Most counties had a greater population estimate using the SC DHEC data than with the census population. However, 10 counties had greater population estimates using the census bureau: (Chester (-62), Colleton (-1,123), Georgetown (-51), Hampton (-508), McCormick (-96), Marlboro (-1,086), Pickens (-3,421), Spartanburg (-1,792), Union (-253), and Williamsburg (-1,201). The biggest discrepancies are Horry County (+14,420) and Pickens County (-3,421). COVID Cases and Deaths Three different sources for both COVID cases and COVID deaths were used: USAFacts, SC DHEC Estimates, and the New York Times. Numbers ReportedUSAFacts Cases: 975,320USAFacts Deaths: 14,636These cases and deaths are based on the cumulative reported cases on 12/31/2021 to include all reported cases in 2020 and 2021 and all reported deaths in the same time frame. The raw data files are available in Z:\Workspace\Projects\SCEMD _HIRA 2023\2023Plan\Data\ByHazard\ PublicHealth\Data\COVID\Raw. The USAFacts raw files have the “USAFacts” prefix. Cases are USAFACTS_covid_confirmed_usafacts 01122022. Deaths are USAFACTS_covid_deaths_usafacts 01122022. SC DHEC Cases: 1,000,194<UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI>When checked, there was a discrepancy of 70 cases in the SC DHEC data (last reported number: 1,000,264). Our thoughts are that SC DHEC is continually updating the data and it will then change the number of cases. Not every county had a discrepancy and those that did were only around 2-3. <UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI> SC DHEC Deaths: 14,858</LI></UL></LI></UL>These cases and deaths are based on the reported values from the beginning of 2020 to 12/31/2021. The raw data files (in the form of pdfs) are available in Z:\Workspace\Projects\SCEMD _HIRA 2023\2023Plan\Data\ByHazard\PublicHealth\Data\COVID\SCDHEC\PDFs. The excel files combining each county are available in Z:\Workspace\Projects\SCEMD _HIRA 2023\2023Plan\Data\ByHazard\PublicHealth\Data\COVID\Raw. The SC DHEC raw files have the “SC DHEC” prefix. Cases and deaths are combined. New York Times Cases: 975,320New York Times Deaths: 14,636These cases and deaths are based on the NYTimes updated database through GitHub. It provides yearly data for 2020, 2021, and 2022. This data is cumulative so to capture the 2020-2021 timeframe, data is from 12/31/2021. The raw data files are available in Z:\Workspace\Projects\SCEMD _HIRA 2023\2023Plan\Data\ByHazard\PublicHealth\ Data\COVID\NYTimes. Cases and deaths are combined in the excel sheet. Differences in Cases<UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI>24,874 between SC DHEC and USAFacts. The difference equation is SC DHEC– USAFacts = Difference. Any difference that is positive has a higher number reported in SC DHEC, and any that is negative has a higher number reported in USAFacts. All counties reported a higher number of cases in the SC DHEC data than the USAFacts data. The range of discrepancies is from Greenville County (3,028) to Allendale County (26). On average, there is a difference of 542 cases. </LI><LI>24,874 between SC DHEC and New York Times. The difference equation is SC DHEC– NYTimes = Difference. Any difference that is positive has a higher number reported in SC DHEC, and any that is negative has a higher number reported in NYTimes. All counties reported a higher number of cases in the SC DHEC data than the NYTimes data. This data difference is the same as the SC DHEC/USAFacts Cases difference values. </LI><LI>No difference between USAFacts and New York Times. The difference equation is USAFacts – NYTimes = Difference. Any difference that is positive has a higher number reported in USAFacts, and any that is negative has a higher number reported in NYTimes. All counties matched between the two sources with a net value of 0. Reported data started 3/6/2022 (USAFacts and NYTimes) and 3/4/2022 (SC DHEC).Differences in Deaths<UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI>222 between SC DHEC and USAFacts. The difference equation is SC DHEC – USAFacts = Difference. Any difference that is positive has a higher number reported in SC DHEC, and any that is negative has a higher number reported in USAFacts. 12 counties matched between the two sources with a net value of 0 (Bamberg, Barnwell, Berkeley, Charleston, Clarendon, Edgefield, Fairfield, Hampton, Jasper, Lee, Marion, and Union. The other counties had positive values. The range of discrepancies is from Greenville County (40) and Aiken and Allendale, both at 1. On average, there is a difference of 4.8 deaths. 222 between SC DHEC and NYTimes. See the SC DHEC and USAFacts difference description. <UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI>No Difference between USAFacts and NYTimes. </LI><LI>The difference equation is USAFacts – NYTimes = Difference. Any difference that is positive has a higher number reported in USAFacts, and any that is negative has a higher number reported in NYTimes. All counties matched between the two sources with a net value of 0. </LI></UL></LI></UL></LI></UL>Reported data started 3/16/2022 (USAFacts and NYTimes), and 3/15/2022 (DHEC). Data Summary <UL STYLE="margin:0 0 0 0;padding:0 0 0 0;"><LI>NYTimes data reports the cumulative number of cases for each geographic area. The case counts include lab-confirmed and probable cases. The criteria for probable cases are provided in the readme (<A href="https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6908-cste-interim-20-id-01-covid-19/85d47e89b637cd643d50/optimized/full.pdf" STYLE="text-decoration:underline;">linked here</A>). The readme includes a disclaimer about the reporting variability in geographies, including some counties including confirmed and probable cases as a single total and some geographies not including probable cases. The data includes cases and deaths in the same workbook file. Deaths overall include confirmed and probable counts. They distinguished between confirmed and probable deaths, with probable deaths including deaths where COVID was listed on the death certificate as a cause of death/significant contributing condition, but not a positive lab test. Additionally, deaths among probable cases tracked by a state/local health department where a death certificate hadn’t been filed were also counted. The readme notes the effort made by NYTimes to update the data to reflect the most current counts (including any possible removal/reallocation). </LI><LI>SC DHEC data reports the cases, deaths, and population estimates in South Carolina, South Carolina regions, and South Carolina counties with the option to further enhance the criteria of the data. Based on the lack of a mention of the data being cumulative and matching the data from “Cases” and “Deaths” (full-time) to the combination of 2020 and 2021 data, it is assumed that the data is not cumulative. The case counts include the number of confirmed and probable cases (<A href="https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-confirmed-probable-cases" STYLE="text-decoration:underline;">more information linked here</A>). In the data itself, confirmed and probable cases are combined in “Cases”. Cases and deaths are broken out to further criteria (Race, ethnicity, sex, and age). No additional data is provided for what is considered for deaths in the data. This source gives an option to view certain case and death counts for a period by changing the slider for start and end dates. Extensive detail about the background of the SC DHEC data and population estimates is not provided. </LI><LI>USAFacts data reports nationwide COVID cases and deaths. A link to the detailed methodology and sources is provided here: <A href="https://usafacts.org/articles/detailed-methodology-covid-19-data/" STYLE="text-decoration:underline;">link</A>. This source aggregates data from the CDC and state/local public health agencies. The detailed methodology does provide a disclaimer that states: “Because of the frequency with which we are currently updating this data, this may not reflect the exact numbers reported by state and local government organizations or the news media. Numbers may also fluctuate as agencies update their own data.” The data is cumulative. It counts presumptive positive cases as confirmed cases (identified as only cases for both in the data). It takes deaths directly from state/local agencies. Deaths were counted only if COVID played a significant role in causing death. When the location of death and location of residency were reported in a death, deaths were attributed to the location of residency. The data lists South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SC DHEC) as a source for South Carolina. </LI></UL></DIV></DIV></DIV>

Copyright Text: USAfacts (2020-2022); CDC Wonder Database (1999-2019); US Census Bureau Redistricting Data (2020); Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute (HVRI) USC Dept. of Geography (2022)

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